Abstract
The U.S. Federal Government is currently engaged in multiple major modernization initiatives. Cloud computing is largely implemented across the federal government, but artificial intelligence (machine learning), cybersecurity, and quantum computing are all competing for resources and management attention. Artificial intelligence adoption is further along than quantum computing and can serve as a framework for predicting and preventing quantum adoption issues. This paper provides an analysis of the federal government’s implementation history for the four major technology areas. It outlines an approach for leveraging artificial intelligence adoption in the federal government to help predict quantum adoption challenges, including the creation of a time series analysis to leverage the Federal Government’s AI investment, progress, and challenges to help predict federal quantum adoption challenges.
Keywords: quantum; quantum computing; quantum computing adoption; artificial intelligence; machine learning; cybersecurity; enterprise modernization; federal adoption
References
- Hornage J. “Methodology to Accelerate Federal Agency Adoption of Quantum Technologies”. Grid, Cloud, and Cluster Computing; Quantum Technologies; and Modeling, Simulation and Visualization Methods. CSCE 2024. Communications in Computer and Information Science, Springer, Cham 2257 (2025).
- Hornage J. “Federal Cloud Computing Adoption Case Study: A Retrospective Analysis as a Precursor to Optimized Quantum Adoption Methodologies”. Grid, Cloud, and Cluster Computing; Quantum Technologies; and Modeling, Simulation and Visualization Methods. CSCE 2024. Communications in Computer and Information Science, Springer, Cham 2257 (2025).
- NIST. NIST SP 800-145: The NIST Definition of Cloud Computing (2011).
- NIST. U.S. Leadership in AI: A Plan for Federal Engagement in Developing Technical Standards and Related Tools 25 (2019).
- National Science and Technology Council, Networking and Information Technology Research and Development Subcommittee. “The National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan”. (2016).
- National Science & Technology Council. “The National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan: 2019 Update”. (2019).
- 116th Congress. H.R.6216 - National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020 (2020).
- Congressional Research Service. “Artificial Intelligence: Background, Selected Issues, and Policy Considerations”. (2021).
- National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. “The Final Report”. (2021).
- The White House. “Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence”. (2023).
- The White House. ”White House Releases New Policies on Federal Agency AI Use and Procurement”. (2025).
- GAO. GAO-24-105980. “Artificial Intelligence: Agencies Have Begun Implementation but Need to Complete Key Requirements”.
- NIST. NIST Special Publication 800-53, Rev 5: Security and Privacy Controls for Information Systems and Organizations (2020): 401.
- Presidential Decision Directive/NSC-63 22 (1998).
- The National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace (2003).
- Cyberspace Policy Review (2009).
- National Cyber Strategy (2018).
- National Cybersecurity Strategy (2023).
- GAO-24-107231. High-Risk Series: Urgent Action Needed to Address Critical Cybersecurity Challenges Facing the Nation (2024).
- NIST. “Quantum Computing Explained”. (2025).
- IBM. “What is Quantum Computing”. (2025).
- 115th Congress. “National Quantum Initiative Act”. (2018).
- National Quantum Coordination Office Website. “Publication Library”.
- DARPA. “DARPA Announces Stage A Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Participants”. (2025).
- IBM. “Expanding the IBM Quantum roadmap to anticipate the future of quantum-centric supercomputing”.
- NIST. NIST CSWP 15. “Getting Ready for Post-Quantum Cryptography: Exploring Challenges Associated with Adopting and Using Post-Quantum Cryptographic Algorithms”. (2021).