PriMera Scientific Engineering (ISSN: 2834-2550)

Research Study

Volume 9 Issue 3

Landslide Risk Assessment Based on Real-Time Rainfall Data and Groundwater Fluctuation Modelling

Damir Jagodic*, Ahmed El Sayed and Zlatan Talic

September 02, 2026

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Abstract

This research focuses on assessing landslide risk triggered by rainfall through numerical modelling of groundwater level fluctuation and slope stability. The methodology is based on real-time field measurements and meteorological data obtained from hydrometeorological stations. The research methodology is structured into three main phases. The first phase involves defining the relationship between rainfall characteristics—such as intensity, cumulative precipitation, runoff coefficient, and soil permeability—and the corresponding change in groundwater level. The second phase consists of a detailed geotechnical model of the slope, with groundwater level as an input derived from the first phase. Slope stability calculation is performed using finite element software, where groundwater level is treated as a variable parameter. Groundwater elevation is determined so that global stability safety factor is equal to 1.0. Considering calculation results, goal of the paper is to help develop a predictive equation that links cumulative rainfall to groundwater level and slope stability.

Keywords: Landslide; Groundwater; Rainfall; FEM Analysis

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