PriMera Scientific Engineering (ISSN: 2834-2550)

Research Article

Volume 4 Issue 1

Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Performance in Simulating West African Precipitation

Boubacar DOUMBIA*, Elijah ADEFISAN, Jerome OMOTOSHO, Boris THIES and Joerg BENDIX

December 28, 2023

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Abstract

An analysis of spatial distributions of West African rainfall during monsoon period (JJAS) of six ensemble members from Coupled Intercomparison Model Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) and compared to two observational datasets of Global Precipitation Climatologic Center and Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (GPCC and CHIRPS) using six extremes precipitation indices from Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The annual cycle of indices based on daily rainfall such as consecutive dry (CDD) and wet (CWD) days, was used over the Sahelian, Savannah and Guinean regions with satellite daily precipitation estimates. The root mean square error (RSME) and standard deviation were compared using a Taylor diagram for each subregion over West Africa. A higher positive correlation is found between CMIP6 and the reference dataset. Despite the high uncertainties, a strong correlation was found over the Savannah region between the GPCC and model simulations with extreme precipitation events (EPEs). This indicates that CMIP6 reproduces the rainfall pattern over the areas better than its CMIP5 counterpart.

Keywords: West Africa; rainfall; CMIP5 and CMIP6 models; climate change

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